At look at key issues for Darrell Clarke’s struggling Barnsley
To cut down the widening gap to the top six
Barnsley are 13 points adrift of the top two and – although they competed fairly well with Wrexham and Birmimgham in their last two games – it would feel farcical to talk about them being in the race for automatic promotion.
You cannot yet rule them out as one of the sides scrabbling to finish in the lower play-off places, and elements of their recent performances suggest that could happen.
It may be still achievable with a good transfer window and improvements in certain areas – like finishing and holding onto leads – but they are four points off the top six and that gap will grow quickly if they don’t start winning again immediately.
While this six-game run is a longer winless streak than they ever endured under Neill Collins, they are generally playing a bit better than they did for most of last season while the noises coming out of the squad are that they are better coached now.
But, after a series of high-quality League One players left last season, there are serious questions over whether they have what it takes to go up this time.
In the last two seasons, the Reds have had 36 and 35 points at the 20-game mark. Saturday’s match at Exeter is their 20th game of this campaign and they currently have 27 points, so they are slipping well back from their previous top six pace. If you assume they need a points tally in the mid to high 70s for the top six, they are close to requiring two per game.
They have some tough fixtures coming up, a lot of injuries, and need help in the transfer window so, until then, it may just be a case of damage limitation and making sure the gap to the play-off places does not get too wide.
Their five games across a fortnight brought four defeats and a draw – a draining and morale-sapping run. The trip to Exeter and home game with Leyton Orient seem like vital matches ahead of a very tough Christmas week when they visit Bolton and Peterborough before hosting Wrexham.
Darrell Clarke cannot shoulder all the blame – with the players, sporting director, board and recruitment department also responsible – but if they do not get a couple of wins this month he may be under real pressure.
Home wins
The Reds have two wins from ten home games so far, with 11 points.
Only three teams have fewer home points in the division while it is their worst home start at this level since 1971/72 when they were relegated.
They have collected 15 points from 16 home games since February, with two wins.
It is a millstone round the neck of Darrell Clarke and his players as they attempt to compete for the top six with the home form of a relegation side.
As a club, they don’t seem to have recovered from the collapse at the end of last season, when many of the major blows were landed at Oakwell.
All of their main issues this season – poor finishing, conceding late on, letting leads slip – seem heightened at home as if there is a mental block to picking up points there.
The gaps in the home stands are getting more noticeable, especially in midweek matches, while it is just not an enjoyable experience to be a regular attendee at Oakwell – if you like winning football matches, anyway.
The Reds are again being kept in the top eight, for now, by a very good away record but that is surely not sustainable.
In theory, Barnsley’s home games now get slightly easier, with a run of matches mainly against relegation-battlers.
Their next five visitors are Leyton Orient, Wrexham – who are flying high but have never won at Oakwell in 16 attempts – Crawley, Stevenage and Burton.
They need to collect the vast majority of those 15 points to ease tensions at Oakwell and start to move up the table.
But many of those sides are starting to pick up improved results, so it will certainly not be straightforward.
The Orient game feels particularly important, although the London club have moved out of the relegation zone with recent wins while Richie Wellens has an excellent record against Clarke.
It is surely a must-win in which the atmosphere could turn nasty if the Reds disappoint again.
A season-saving January transfer window
The upcoming January transfer window looks vital for Barnsley’s promotion push.
Signing a striker, or two, is the obvious top priority for the Reds as they desperately need to improve their ability to finish chances.
Another natural left wing-back to compete with Georgie Gent also makes sense.
They may look at the goalkeeper situation, although previous back-up Ben Killip is performing well and Gaga Slonina’s injury is not thought to be long-term.
In an ideal world, they would also unearth another attacking midfielder with pace and direct running as well as a centre-back who is more of a ball-player who can join in attacks in the Bobby Thomas style.
But, with the owners putting in £8million a year to keep the club afloat, there is unlikely to be a massive budget to sign players with.
As for outgoings, the Reds have not sold a regular starter in a January window since Brad Potts in 2019 – despite having bids in the past.
When Adam Phillips made a flying start to the season, he looked likely to be a major target for clubs in January, but is goalless from open play in 13 games.
He will turn 27 during the window and, although on a long-term contract and a loyal, professional character, will surely be wanting to play in the Championship soon after excelling in League One for several years.
If the Reds continue to drop further away from the top six, signing quality and keeping their best players will become harder.
They will also look to trim the squad, by moving on a series of players who are not getting minutes and aren’t in Clarke’s plans – which may free up a bit of money.
More clinical finishing
The Reds have had, by far, the most shots in the division but have scored the ninth most goals.
The two goals from 70 shots the week before last was particularly poor as they missed some big chances.
There is no secret that strikers will be the main area the Reds look at it in the January transfer window, but they also need to get more out of their current forwards to avoid being cut adrift from the top six.
Clarke’s aim is 40 goals from his strikers collectively throughout the season and his current group are currently on course for just over 30, having netted 13 in 19 games.
Four-goal Davis Keillor-Dunn and five-goal Stephen Humphrys, both of whom have not played as strikers through much of their careers and who signed on deadline day in August, have had some good games up front.
Humphrys in particular looks as though he can create big moments out of nowhere and is very popular with the fans. But they have also missed some huge chances.
They would probably work well as part of a group of four or five forwards being rotated regularly in the side but recently have been flogged as the only two Clarke seems to trust to start.
After being totally frozen out of the squad in the first half of 2024, Max Watters has had a reasonable season, with three league goals, and has been missed recently when injured as he adds some extra pace and the ability to switch to three up front.
Sam Cosgrove has four goals in 46 league games for the Reds, none in his last 14, and 16 in 152 appearances in the English leagues. He has made very little impact in recent months.
Fabio Jalo, 19, has made an impact off the bench but hasn’t scored or started and is now injured for three months.
It is not just down to strikers to score.
Adam Phillips’ goals have dried up recently, no wing-backs have netted yet this season and the Reds have missed some big chances from their often dangerous set pieces.
The ability to hold a lead
Barnsley have badly struggled to manage games, see out wins and produce solid, consistent performances throughout entire matches.
They have dropped 11 points from winning positions, with no side in the division losing more. All of those dropped points have been at home which is the highest number in English professional football, while they are yet to come from behind to win anywhere.
They have also conceded the most goals in English football after the 75th minute, with 11. They have only conceded five goals in the first half of games and 20 in the second.
Some of the goals they have conceded have been very sloppy such as Saturday’s winner for Birmingham, with Georgie Gent not marking properly.
Fringe players to step up
The Reds lost a series of players in the build-up to and during Saturday’s loss to Birmingham City.
Josh Earl and Marc Roberts are likely to be out until January or even February while Fabio Jalo is not due to return until March. It is a big blow as Earl and Roberts have been nearly ever-present in the back three and generally good performers while forward Jalo has made an impact off the bench recently.
Defender Conor McCarthy could make his first league start for the club in more than 800 days, unless they change to a back four with usual wing-backs as full-backs.
With Adam Phillips suspended, Kelechi Nwakali must surely be in line for a first league start at Exeter.
Overall, though, it resembles a squad being stretched to its limits.